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Client Letter | The U.S. Economy and Financial Markets: Passing the Tests | September 4, 2024

With fall upon us and students back in classrooms, it seems like a good time to reflect on the various tests that the U.S. economy and stock market have passed recently. When the economy and markets are tested, the foundation for future growth and capital appreciation gets stronger. The Federal Reserve (Fed) engineered one of its most aggressive rate-tightening campaigns ever in 2022 and 2023, providing a tough test for the U.S. economy. Amid widespread calls for recession, the economy chugged right along, powered by consumers who continued to spend, even as rates rose. How did consumers do it? Stimulus helped, though we probably got more than we needed. So did low fixed-rate mortgages. Regardless of how it happened, and despite the Fed’s mixed track record, the economy passed this test. The economy also seems to have passed its inflation test. The widely followed Consumer Price Index, which peaked at 9.1% year over year in June 2022, dipped below 3% last month. Same with the Fed’s pre

September 28th 2024 Women Wealth & Wellness Workshop

  As a father of three daughters, Certified Financial Planner® and health coach I have made it my life’s mission to focus on inspiring and empowering women to live healthier and wealthier lives!  I'm looking for 10 women with strong values who would like to learn more about wealth management and wellness to attend my virtual Zoom workshop on Saturday, September 28 th from 12:00PM (EST) to 1:00PM (EST). Regardless of where you are in your life’s journey, there are key steps you can take to help maximize your wealth and wellness today!  If you would like to be empowered with the knowledge and specific actions steps to build your foundation of wealth and wellness reserve your spot today by emailing me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or phone at: (734) 272-4322. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC) . Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the exte

Three Important Themes Relating to the Latest Spike in Market Volatility

  I hope you are doing well and had a great weekend! Check out the short video in the link below where our Chief Economist discusses three important themes relating to the latest spike in financial market volatility! Current Financial Market Stress Levels and Implications   Please let me know if you have any questions or if there is anything we can do for you please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today!! IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged

August 6, 2024 Perspectives on Market Volatility

Stocks must have gotten the memo that August tends to be weak historically. July, the eighth positive month in the past nine, was quickly forgotten as the beginning of August greeted us with a selloff. The primary catalyst was August 2’s weaker-than-expected employment report, which ignited concern that the U.S. economy could tip into recession. Several additional factors exacerbated the selling pressure: Overly bullish sentiment and elevated valuations. Investor sentiment had become a bit frothy, particularly in the tech sector, and stocks had simply gotten a bit ahead of themselves, as discussed in LPL’s Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn. Seasonality. The historically weak month of August is a logical time for a selloff to reset investor sentiment to more normal levels. Increased scrutiny around the payoffs for artificial intelligence (AI) investments. This scrutiny followed some evidence of slowing consumer demand during second quarter earnings season. Leverage in the

Thoughts on Global Selloff and the Dollar's Path to Decompressing

Before the jobs report was released on Friday, we wrote a commentary on the U.S. dollar. In light of the events over the weekend and Monday, we start with some comments on the global stock market selloff. The broad stock market benchmarks are down about 3% this morning as several factors have lined up to create conditions for a sharp global selloff. A batch of weak economic data, notably Friday’s jobs report, sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have taken its higher-for-longer rate policy too far. After such a strong rally since last fall, valuations, sentiment, and investor positioning had become stretched. What markets are experiencing today is an unwinding of that bullish positioning, which is particularly evident in the yen and the so-called carry trade. Japan’s Nikkei suffered its worst one-day decline since 1987. Where do we go from here? We anticipated more volatility, as we discussed in the  LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2024 ,  based on the size of this year’s m

07/29/24 Weekly Market Update

  This week's Weekly Market Commentary discusses the current investment climate with rising wages, slowing inflation, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. This analysis provides investors with insights on navigating a market poised for a potential soft landing amidst various risks. Read Full Commentary Here Please let me know if you have any questions or if there is anything we can do for you please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today!! Securities offered through LPL Financial | Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Four Financial Management a registered investment advisor & separate entity from LPL Financial. The LPL Financial registered representative(s) associated with this website may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.

What the Economy is Telling Us About the Election

In our latest Market Signals podcast, Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, and Chief Economist, Dr. Jeffrey Roach, discuss the significant rotation from technology to small caps recently, assess the potential effects of a Trump-Harris matchup on the “Trump trade”, analyze the election through an economic lens, and preview some important economic data due out this week. Click the link below to watch / listen to the podcast: CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE PODCAST Please let me know if you have any questions or if there is anything we can do for you please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today!! Securities offered through LPL Financial | Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Four Financial Management a registered investment advisor & separate entity from LPL Financial. The LPL Financial registered representative(s) associated with this website may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are

Potential Market Implications of Trump Assassination Attempt

  ·     With election season in full swing, investors may be concerned about how either a second Joe Biden or a second Donald Trump presidential term will impact their portfolios. ·     However, as we noted in Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn , for the long-term investor, political opinions are best expressed at the polls and not in portfolios. ·     And while it’s still too early to really draw any firm conclusions about the economic policies of either candidate, uncertainty around policy could introduce market volatility. ·     Historically, in periods of heightened economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty, higher quality bonds have tended to outperform equities and exhibit lower volatility. ·     With uncertainty likely to rise and the Fed expected to cut rates later this year, investors should consider increasing allocations to strategies invested in higher quality fixed income, particularly those investors with excess cash. If you have any questions or

Four Financial Management Office Tour

 Click the video link below for a tour of our downtown Ann Arbor office! If you would like an un-biased second opinion analysis on your financial plan please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today! Important Disclosures This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced

2024 Midyear Economic & Financial Outlook

  As we reach the halfway point of 2024, a sense of persistence defines the economic and market landscape. Trends from late 2023 have continued, with surprisingly resilient economic growth mixed with stubborn but decelerating inflation. Equity markets have thrived and regained all the lost ground from 2022. On the other hand, the bond market still grapples with policy uncertainty and remains range bound for the most part. While it’s tempting to forecast a continuation of these trends, our analysis suggests an impending shift. The economy looks poised to cool down in the second half, which will have an impact on both policy and markets. To navigate this evolving landscape, we leverage the expertise of our Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC), which identifies potential risks and opportunities. In today’s higher-rate environment, the STAAC believes investors have more options. By prioritizing income generation and remaining patient and disciplined with equities, in

2nd Half 2024 Client Letter

  Dear Valued Client, Stocks finished the first half of the year the same way they started — with solid gains. Strong rallies from big tech names, combined with somewhat softer economic and inflation data, helped propel the S&P 500 to its seventh monthly gain in the past eight months and set dozens of new record highs along the way. As we close the book on a strong first half for the stock market, we celebrate America’s 248th birthday. But America isn’t the only birthday we’re celebrating in July. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate “pause” turns one year old — the Fed’s last rate hike came on July 23, 2023. Fed pauses (neither rate hikes nor cuts) have generally been good for stocks, especially the longer ones, with gains for the S&P 500 lasting about eight months in five of the last six pauses. In what is currently the second-longest pause since the 1970s, the S&P 500 is up about 20% and nearing the 22% gain registered during the longest pause in 2006–2007. This mea

Double-Digit Earnings Growth on Tap

With stock valuations elevated after such a strong first half, earnings growth will be key to holding, or potentially building on these gains.  Our research department believes stocks have gotten a bit over their skis, but earnings season may not be the catalyst for a pullback in the near term given all signs point to another solid earnings season and stocks have mostly performed well during the peak weeks of reporting season in recent years. We may not get an increase in second-half estimates over the next couple of months — that's a lot to ask — but we should get a few points of upside and double-digit earnings growth for the second quarter on the back of technology strength. Read the full commentary  here As always, please reach out to me with questions or if there is anything else we can do for you!  I can be reached by email at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or by phone at 734-272-4322. Sincerely, Cyril S. White Certified Financial Planner ™ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This material

Is the current ongoing AI-driven stock market rally another Internet bubble?

  Is the current ongoing AI-driven stock market rally another Internet bubble? This week's Weekly Market Commentary discusses the current tech market dynamics, contrasting today's robust, high-quality company-led environment with the late-1990s tech bubble. Learn why a mild correction might offer strategic buying opportunities, despite the ongoing AI-driven rally.  Check out our latest market commentary in the link below to hear our opinion on this topic! Artificial Intelligence: The Antidote to Fed Policy?  As always, please reach out to me with questions or if there is anything else we can do for you!  I can be reached by email at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or by phone at 734-272-4322. Sincerely, Cyril S. White Certified Financial Planner ™ Important Information This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for al

June 2024 Market Letter

Dear Friend, I hope that you and your family are doing well! Below are our latest thoughts about our current financial and economic markets. April showers brought May flowers as markets placed greater importance on economic growth and corporate profits than the “higher for longer” interest rate messages from the Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, the S&P 500 ended May above where it ended March. So, as you prepare for summer vacations, how much should you worry about your stock portfolios? First, based on history, stocks tend to do just fine between Memorial Day and Labor Day, with the S&P 500 rising 1.8% on average between holidays with gains 70% of the time (source: Bespoke). Also consider stocks tend to do better the rest of the year when they rise in May, with an average June–December gain of 5.4% with positive returns 73% of the time. Seasonality is not particularly worrisome. Investing involves much more than seasonality. Looking at the U.S. economy, slower growth in the fir

Essential Tax Tips for IRAs

  Woe to the taxpayer who runs afoul of the numerous and confusing IRA rules. There are forms to file, contributions to make, distributions to take, and penalties to avoid. While corrections are possible, it’s best to avoid mistakes in the first place. Here’s what you need to know. IRAs come with a lot of rules, especially when it comes to taxes. Failure to follow the rules can result in penalties, excise taxes, double taxation, and in a worst-case scenario, the loss of your tax-deferred status. Here are a few tips that can help you avoid unnecessary—and costly—errors. IRA CONTRIBUTIONS: ELIGIBILITY AND OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS You must meet certain requirements in order to be eligible to make contributions to IRAs. Failure to meet these requirements can result in excess IRA contributions. Excess contributions that are not properly corrected can result in double taxation and excise tax being owed to the IRS. The following are some general eligibility requirements that must be met for I