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Showing posts from July, 2024

Potential Market Implications of Trump Assassination Attempt

  ·     With election season in full swing, investors may be concerned about how either a second Joe Biden or a second Donald Trump presidential term will impact their portfolios. ·     However, as we noted in Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn , for the long-term investor, political opinions are best expressed at the polls and not in portfolios. ·     And while it’s still too early to really draw any firm conclusions about the economic policies of either candidate, uncertainty around policy could introduce market volatility. ·     Historically, in periods of heightened economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty, higher quality bonds have tended to outperform equities and exhibit lower volatility. ·     With uncertainty likely to rise and the Fed expected to cut rates later this year, investors should consider increasing allocations to strategies invested in higher quality fixed income, particularly those investors with excess cash. If you have any questions or

Four Financial Management Office Tour

 Click the video link below for a tour of our downtown Ann Arbor office! If you would like an un-biased second opinion analysis on your financial plan please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today! Important Disclosures This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced

2024 Midyear Economic & Financial Outlook

  As we reach the halfway point of 2024, a sense of persistence defines the economic and market landscape. Trends from late 2023 have continued, with surprisingly resilient economic growth mixed with stubborn but decelerating inflation. Equity markets have thrived and regained all the lost ground from 2022. On the other hand, the bond market still grapples with policy uncertainty and remains range bound for the most part. While it’s tempting to forecast a continuation of these trends, our analysis suggests an impending shift. The economy looks poised to cool down in the second half, which will have an impact on both policy and markets. To navigate this evolving landscape, we leverage the expertise of our Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC), which identifies potential risks and opportunities. In today’s higher-rate environment, the STAAC believes investors have more options. By prioritizing income generation and remaining patient and disciplined with equities, in

2nd Half 2024 Client Letter

  Dear Valued Client, Stocks finished the first half of the year the same way they started — with solid gains. Strong rallies from big tech names, combined with somewhat softer economic and inflation data, helped propel the S&P 500 to its seventh monthly gain in the past eight months and set dozens of new record highs along the way. As we close the book on a strong first half for the stock market, we celebrate America’s 248th birthday. But America isn’t the only birthday we’re celebrating in July. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate “pause” turns one year old — the Fed’s last rate hike came on July 23, 2023. Fed pauses (neither rate hikes nor cuts) have generally been good for stocks, especially the longer ones, with gains for the S&P 500 lasting about eight months in five of the last six pauses. In what is currently the second-longest pause since the 1970s, the S&P 500 is up about 20% and nearing the 22% gain registered during the longest pause in 2006–2007. This mea

Double-Digit Earnings Growth on Tap

With stock valuations elevated after such a strong first half, earnings growth will be key to holding, or potentially building on these gains.  Our research department believes stocks have gotten a bit over their skis, but earnings season may not be the catalyst for a pullback in the near term given all signs point to another solid earnings season and stocks have mostly performed well during the peak weeks of reporting season in recent years. We may not get an increase in second-half estimates over the next couple of months — that's a lot to ask — but we should get a few points of upside and double-digit earnings growth for the second quarter on the back of technology strength. Read the full commentary  here As always, please reach out to me with questions or if there is anything else we can do for you!  I can be reached by email at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or by phone at 734-272-4322. Sincerely, Cyril S. White Certified Financial Planner ™ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This material