Skip to main content

Posts

Client Letter | The U.S. Economy and Financial Markets: Passing the Tests | September 4, 2024

With fall upon us and students back in classrooms, it seems like a good time to reflect on the various tests that the U.S. economy and stock market have passed recently. When the economy and markets are tested, the foundation for future growth and capital appreciation gets stronger. The Federal Reserve (Fed) engineered one of its most aggressive rate-tightening campaigns ever in 2022 and 2023, providing a tough test for the U.S. economy. Amid widespread calls for recession, the economy chugged right along, powered by consumers who continued to spend, even as rates rose. How did consumers do it? Stimulus helped, though we probably got more than we needed. So did low fixed-rate mortgages. Regardless of how it happened, and despite the Fed’s mixed track record, the economy passed this test. The economy also seems to have passed its inflation test. The widely followed Consumer Price Index, which peaked at 9.1% year over year in June 2022, dipped below 3% last month. Same with the Fed’s pre
Recent posts

September 28th 2024 Women Wealth & Wellness Workshop

  As a father of three daughters, Certified Financial Planner® and health coach I have made it my life’s mission to focus on inspiring and empowering women to live healthier and wealthier lives!  I'm looking for 10 women with strong values who would like to learn more about wealth management and wellness to attend my virtual Zoom workshop on Saturday, September 28 th from 12:00PM (EST) to 1:00PM (EST). Regardless of where you are in your life’s journey, there are key steps you can take to help maximize your wealth and wellness today!  If you would like to be empowered with the knowledge and specific actions steps to build your foundation of wealth and wellness reserve your spot today by emailing me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or phone at: (734) 272-4322. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC) . Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the exte

Three Important Themes Relating to the Latest Spike in Market Volatility

  I hope you are doing well and had a great weekend! Check out the short video in the link below where our Chief Economist discusses three important themes relating to the latest spike in financial market volatility! Current Financial Market Stress Levels and Implications   Please let me know if you have any questions or if there is anything we can do for you please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today!! IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged

August 6, 2024 Perspectives on Market Volatility

Stocks must have gotten the memo that August tends to be weak historically. July, the eighth positive month in the past nine, was quickly forgotten as the beginning of August greeted us with a selloff. The primary catalyst was August 2’s weaker-than-expected employment report, which ignited concern that the U.S. economy could tip into recession. Several additional factors exacerbated the selling pressure: Overly bullish sentiment and elevated valuations. Investor sentiment had become a bit frothy, particularly in the tech sector, and stocks had simply gotten a bit ahead of themselves, as discussed in LPL’s Midyear Outlook 2024: Still Waiting for the Turn. Seasonality. The historically weak month of August is a logical time for a selloff to reset investor sentiment to more normal levels. Increased scrutiny around the payoffs for artificial intelligence (AI) investments. This scrutiny followed some evidence of slowing consumer demand during second quarter earnings season. Leverage in the

Thoughts on Global Selloff and the Dollar's Path to Decompressing

Before the jobs report was released on Friday, we wrote a commentary on the U.S. dollar. In light of the events over the weekend and Monday, we start with some comments on the global stock market selloff. The broad stock market benchmarks are down about 3% this morning as several factors have lined up to create conditions for a sharp global selloff. A batch of weak economic data, notably Friday’s jobs report, sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have taken its higher-for-longer rate policy too far. After such a strong rally since last fall, valuations, sentiment, and investor positioning had become stretched. What markets are experiencing today is an unwinding of that bullish positioning, which is particularly evident in the yen and the so-called carry trade. Japan’s Nikkei suffered its worst one-day decline since 1987. Where do we go from here? We anticipated more volatility, as we discussed in the  LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2024 ,  based on the size of this year’s m

07/29/24 Weekly Market Update

  This week's Weekly Market Commentary discusses the current investment climate with rising wages, slowing inflation, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. This analysis provides investors with insights on navigating a market poised for a potential soft landing amidst various risks. Read Full Commentary Here Please let me know if you have any questions or if there is anything we can do for you please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today!! Securities offered through LPL Financial | Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Four Financial Management a registered investment advisor & separate entity from LPL Financial. The LPL Financial registered representative(s) associated with this website may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.

What the Economy is Telling Us About the Election

In our latest Market Signals podcast, Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, and Chief Economist, Dr. Jeffrey Roach, discuss the significant rotation from technology to small caps recently, assess the potential effects of a Trump-Harris matchup on the “Trump trade”, analyze the election through an economic lens, and preview some important economic data due out this week. Click the link below to watch / listen to the podcast: CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE PODCAST Please let me know if you have any questions or if there is anything we can do for you please contact me at cyril.white@fourfinancial.com or (734) 272-4322 today!! Securities offered through LPL Financial | Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Four Financial Management a registered investment advisor & separate entity from LPL Financial. The LPL Financial registered representative(s) associated with this website may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are